The Rise of the Private Market Secondaries: Liquidity Finds its Stage | Elephant

The Rise of the Private Market Secondaries: Liquidity Finds its Stage

In a world where exit routes like IPOs and M&A have slowed, the private-market secondary arena is becoming a pivotal lifeline.

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In a world where exit routes like IPOs and M&A have slowed, the private-market secondary arena is becoming a pivotal lifeline.

Verdun Perry, head of secondaries at Blackstone, recently told Bloomberg that secondary transaction volumes—buying and selling stakes in private-market assets—could more than double by 2030, rising to $400 billion. He emphasized that, in both slow and robust cycles, the secondary market will increasingly serve as a strategic liquidity tool for private-market investors.
This year’s figures reinforce that trend: 2025 might close with volume surpassing $220 billion.

Why the Surge?

A combination of factors is fueling this growth:

  • NAV Growth, Distribution Drought
    Private equity’s net asset value (NAV) continues to climb—estimated at $8.7 trillion by 2024—but distribution yields are lagging. Higher NAV but stagnant yields create demand for liquidity, and the secondary market answers that demand.
  • Record-Breaking Momentum
    In 2024, secondary market volume hit $160 billion—the highest on record to date. Through the first half of 2025, that figure already reached $102 billion.
  • Two Pillars: LP-Led and GP-Led Transactions
    • LP-led transactions enable investors to monetize fund interests before traditional exits materialize. In 2024, LP-led volume reached $89 billion. The momentum continued into 2025 with an astounding $54 billion generated in just the first half.
    • GP-led deals—often via continuation funds or restructurings—have surged too. 2024 saw $71 billion in GP-led activity, accounting for 44 percent of total secondary volume. In the first half of 2025, GP-leds already tallied $48 billion.

Past, Present, and the Road to Doubling

Historical data helps frame this trajectory. In 2022, the secondary market totaled approximately $108 billion. By the end of 2024, estimates rose to around $150 billion. Now, Blackstone projects this figure to hit $400 billion by 2030—a more than twofold increase versus today’s level.

Turned Into A Cornerstone

Where secondaries were once niche, they’re now central to portfolio management. LPs increasingly use the market to generate their own liquidity; GPs deploy secondaries to retain exposure to top-tier assets while managing capital flow obligations. Total secondary penetration remains modest—about 1 percent of NAV—but the runway is long. As NAV grows and investors embrace secondaries more fully, volumes have the potential to keep climbing well beyond current expectations.


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